Iranian Rationality in the Face of U.S./Israeli Madness

According to the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities:

The Director of National Intelligence serves as the head of the Intelligence Community (IC), overseeing and directing the implementation of the National Intelligence Program and acting as the principal advisor to the President, the National Security Council, and the Homeland Security Council for intelligence matters.

In other words, this person, this organization and the IC in general, aim to use all means at their disposal to get things right about national security issues.[1] In arriving at judgments about security issues, therefore, it is important to note that the NIC offers up its judgments with degrees of certainty that it relates explicitly.

What judgments did it make concerning Iran’s nuclear capabilities and intentions? Among others it made these judgments:

-that in 2003, Iran halted its nuclear weapons program

-that this halt lasted “at least several years”

-that it had not restarted a nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007

-that it currently does not have a nuclear weapon

-that it halted its program “primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work”

Then this judgment:

Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005. Our assessment that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously.

Following up on this judgment the NIE notes that this “response to international pressure indicates Tehran’s decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic, and military costs.”

Nonetheless, convincing Iran’s leaders to forgo the development of nuclear weapons (at some point) seems unlikely given “key national security and foreign policy objectives”.

Finally (among numerous other judments), the NIC judges with “high confidence” that it won’t be until 2015 before Iran is technically capable of making a nuclear weapon.

Clearly then we can see why almost every candidate for the presidency is advocating using weapons of mass destruction against Iran. It’s Germany all over again! Except, of course, for the fact that the U.S. has approximately 8,000 nuclear weapons (Israel has about 200 of these genocidal devices) never mind all sorts of technical advantages over a militarily weaker Iran. No doubt, Iran’s national security objectives would be enhanced by the possession of nuclear weapons. No doubt it could further foreign policy objectives as well. Crazy Iranians. Looking out for their own interests like that.

While most of the American presidential candidates fall over themselves to advocate mass destruction (Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich being two notable exceptions) let’s remember that back in 2003 Iran offered a proposal to the U.S. that included peace with Israel. It appears these two-nations-melded-as-one are not in the least interested in such.

Iran is hardly a nuclear threat. Besides, what nation wouldn’t aim to develop a weapon sure to inhibit an act of mass destruction of the magnitude perpetrated against the Iraqi people? Far from crazy - given the U.S. (and Israeli) politicians salivating at the prospect of attacking Iran - having “the bomb” is pure rationality. Not having it pure folly.

Iran and Surrounding Countries with U.S. Military Bases

Notes

[1] Alexander Cockburn, journalist, muckracker and editor of Counter Punch argues otherwise about an NIE, and what it is all about:

“Now, in theory an NIE represents the objective consensus of 16 US intelligence agencies on matters of national security. In practice it is a useful guide to how a bunch of bureaucratic knife-fighters assess the balance of forces in Washington.”

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